| Back To Methodology and Conclusions | |||||||||||||||||||
| HAUGEN SYSTEMS ALTERNATIVE RATIO PORTFOLIO BACKTESTS | |||||||||||||||||||
| In this backtest, known as the Rosetta Backtest, we started with the population of the largest 1000 US stocks, | Backtest Parameters: | ||||||||||||||||||
| 30 stocks were held each month (50 for the other methodologies), the stocks were held for a period of 12 months, | Region | U.S. | |||||||||||||||||
| and 12 monthly portfolios were run (each starting on a different month) for each methodology. The portfolio returns were | Population | Top 1,000 | |||||||||||||||||
| linked to produce annual returns, and the 12 different portfolios' annual returns were averaged and presented below. | # of stocks | 30/50 | |||||||||||||||||
| While the Rosetta backtest did not include finance nor utility stocks, our previous results indicated that sector | First Date | 1996 | |||||||||||||||||
| omissions were unimportant, so all sectors were included in the other tests. For comparison purposes, the Haugen | Last Date | 12/31/05 | |||||||||||||||||
| Model's average annual returns (from the same portfolio methodology as the other pairings), Greenblatts returns as | Sector Constrain | No | |||||||||||||||||
| presented in his book, along with the annual S&P 500 returns are presented on the right. | Rebalance periodicity | Yrly/Mthly | |||||||||||||||||
| Number to rebalance | 30/4 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Rosetta Test | Greenblatt | Earnings | Return on | Return on | Return on | Earning | Earnings | Return on | Greenblatt | Haugen | S&P | ||||||||
| (Greenblatt) | Return on Assets | Yield | Equity | Assets | Assets | Yield | Yield | Assets | Returns | Model | 500 | ||||||||
| EBIT/Net | & Earnings Yld | plus | plus | plus | plus | plus | plus | plus | (from the | Index | |||||||||
| Oper.Assets | All | Profit | Book to | Book to | Cash Flow | Sales over | Return on | Sales to | book) | ||||||||||
| plus | Sectors | Margin | Price | Price | Yield | Assets | Equity | Price | |||||||||||
| EBIT/EntVal | |||||||||||||||||||
| ---------------------A V E R A G E P O R T F O L I O T O T A L R E T U R N----------------------- | |||||||||||||||||||
| 1997 | 14.70% | 11.13% | 26.50% | 25.57% | 15.41% | 13.43% | 15.75% | 20.17% | 15.03% | 41.00% | 38.83% | 33.36% | |||||||
| 1998 | 5.82% | 8.91% | 4.38% | 1.46% | 8.67% | 8.60% | -1.11% | 5.32% | 1.71% | 32.60% | 29.61% | 28.58% | |||||||
| 1999 | -4.19% | 12.35% | 12.92% | 6.16% | 8.59% | 12.94% | 2.55% | 4.78% | 2.79% | 14.40% | 42.17% | 21.04% | |||||||
| 2000 | 26.94% | 17.28% | 25.60% | 24.93% | 17.67% | 19.06% | 24.26% | 21.69% | 20.85% | 12.80% | -3.53% | -9.11% | |||||||
| 2001 | 9.59% | 7.61% | 6.81% | 9.34% | 8.10% | 8.86% | 13.71% | 5.25% | 14.99% | 38.20% | 1.06% | -11.89% | |||||||
| 2002 | 9.44% | 6.50% | 10.42% | 9.66% | 11.36% | 7.15% | 4.51% | 3.67% | 3.97% | -25.30% | 3.78% | -22.10% | |||||||
| Averge Linked Annual Ret. | 9.99% | 10.57% | 14.12% | 12.49% | 11.57% | 11.60% | 9.60% | 9.89% | 9.65% | 16.43% | 17.17% | 4.40% | |||||||
| Average Annual Return | 10.39% | 10.63% | 14.44% | 12.85% | 11.63% | 11.67% | 9.94% | 10.15% | 9.89% | 18.95% | 18.65% | 6.65% | |||||||
| Longitudinal Std.Dev. | 10.27% | 3.91% | 9.46% | 10.05% | 4.03% | 4.41% | 9.58% | 8.39% | 8.06% | 24.74% | 20.51% | 23.75% | |||||||
| T-Stat | 2.26 | 6.07 | 3.41 | 2.86 | 6.45 | 5.92 | 2.32 | 2.71 | 2.74 | 1.71 | 2.03 | 0.63 | |||||||
| Probability Total Ret < 0 | 16.42% | 7.59% | 6.72% | 10.99% | 9.07% | 6.98% | 15.84% | 12.31% | 11.98% | 22.31% | 18.74% | 37.72% | |||||||
| ---------------------A V E R A G E P O R T F O L I O E X C E S S R E T U R N----------------------- | |||||||||||||||||||
| 1997 | -18.66% | -22.24% | -6.86% | -7.79% | -17.95% | -19.94% | -17.61% | -13.20% | -18.33% | 7.64% | 5.46% | 0.00% | |||||||
| 1998 | -22.76% | -19.67% | -24.20% | -27.12% | -19.91% | -19.98% | -29.69% | -23.26% | -26.87% | 4.02% | 1.03% | 0.00% | |||||||
| 1999 | -25.23% | -8.69% | -8.13% | -14.88% | -12.45% | -8.10% | -18.49% | -16.27% | -18.25% | -6.64% | 21.13% | 0.00% | |||||||
| 2000 | 36.05% | 26.39% | 34.70% | 34.03% | 26.77% | 28.17% | 33.36% | 30.80% | 29.96% | 21.91% | 5.58% | 0.00% | |||||||
| 2001 | 21.48% | 19.50% | 18.70% | 21.22% | 19.99% | 20.75% | 25.59% | 17.13% | 26.88% | 50.09% | 12.94% | 0.00% | |||||||
| 2002 | 31.54% | 28.60% | 32.53% | 31.76% | 33.46% | 29.25% | 26.61% | 25.77% | 26.07% | -3.20% | 25.88% | 0.00% | |||||||
| Average Annual Return | 3.74% | 3.98% | 7.79% | 6.20% | 4.98% | 5.02% | 3.30% | 3.50% | 3.24% | 12.30% | 12.00% | 0.00% | |||||||
| Longitudinal Std.Dev. | 28.90% | 23.48% | 24.27% | 26.09% | 24.33% | 23.62% | 28.09% | 23.72% | 26.94% | 21.02% | 9.81% | ||||||||
| Information Ratio | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.32 | 0.24 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.59 | 1.22 | ||||||||
| T-Stat | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.72 | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.48 | 0.26 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 1.31 | 2.74 | ||||||||
| Probability Excess Ret < 0 | 43.93% | 42.18% | 36.17% | 39.38% | 40.71% | 40.39% | 44.46% | 43.13% | 44.32% | 27.36% | 12.04% | ||||||||
| Each test's results were computed as follows | |||||||||||||||||||
| 1. First the test that began in January had the monthly returns linked together to get an annual total return for 1997. Linking is the | |||||||||||||||||||
| geometric average calculated by adding 1 to each monthly return, multiplying the numbers together, and subracting 1. | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2. Then 1998 thru 2002 had the total returns calculated in a similar way. | |||||||||||||||||||
| 3. Then the February portfolio's annual returns were calculated the same way, then March, and so on resulting in a table | |||||||||||||||||||
| with 6 by 12 annual returns | |||||||||||||||||||
| 4. Then 1997's average annual return was calculated by taking the arithmetic average of all 12 portfolio's 1997 results | |||||||||||||||||||
| 5. The rest of the year's average annual returns were then calculated. | |||||||||||||||||||
| The Average Linked Annual Return was then computed by linking these average annual returns together. Like with the monthly | |||||||||||||||||||
| returns, above, we added 1 to each annual return, and multiplied the numbers together. Then, that product was taken to the | |||||||||||||||||||
| 12 / 72nd power before subtracting by one. The numbers from Greenblatt's books were already geometric averages, so the | |||||||||||||||||||
| average linked annual return could be calculated the same way as in the rest of the columns. | |||||||||||||||||||
| The Average Annual Return is the arithmetic average of each test's (eg Jan97, Jan98, Feb97, etc) montly total return. | |||||||||||||||||||
| The longitudinal standard deviation is calculated by taking a standard, non-biased standard deviation of the average annual returns | |||||||||||||||||||
| The information ratio is the average excess return divided by the standard deviation of the excess returns | |||||||||||||||||||
| The t-stat is the average annual return divided by the standard deviation divided by the square root of the number of years in the study. | |||||||||||||||||||
| The probability is calculated by first finding the range of returns in the bell curve (eg, 95% of the returns will be within 2 standard | |||||||||||||||||||
| deviations) and then calculating the ratio of this range and dividing by 2. | |||||||||||||||||||