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Back to Enhanced
Slow-Burning Model |
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HAUGEN
CUSTOM FINANCIAL SYSTEMS |
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STANDARD MODEL'S TOP 1,000 DECILE PERFORMANCE |
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| Performance
is measured by sorting expected returns from lowest to highest. The population includes the top 1,000
companies by |
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| market
capitalization. Then we divide the
list into 10 groupings, or deciles.
So, assuming, in a given month, there are 3,300 companies in the
universe, decile 1 |
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| (lowest
expected return) would have 330 stocks.
Decile returns are plotted against decile rankings and a slope is
computed of the line of best fit through |
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| the 10 plot
points. Below find the annual,
quarterly, and monthly returns for each of the deciles as well as the returns
to the S&P 500 stock index, the slope |
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| of the line of best fit, and the r-squares
showing the goodness of fit around the line. |
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| Year |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
S&P 500 |
Slope |
R^2 |
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| 1996 |
-1.08% |
11.23% |
24.70% |
16.05% |
21.43% |
23.49% |
20.79% |
19.91% |
21.18% |
37.61% |
22.96% |
2.49% |
57.73% |
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| 1997 |
6.19% |
19.85% |
12.71% |
32.88% |
26.40% |
31.79% |
24.16% |
29.41% |
43.14% |
46.56% |
33.36% |
3.57% |
74.99% |
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| 1998 |
-6.48% |
-10.10% |
-1.36% |
0.70% |
-0.19% |
7.87% |
13.87% |
16.20% |
29.55% |
34.26% |
28.58% |
4.72% |
92.12% |
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| 1999 |
15.16% |
-1.80% |
-2.10% |
-2.05% |
-6.21% |
6.24% |
4.21% |
15.44% |
19.95% |
39.52% |
21.04% |
2.97% |
41.54% |
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| 2000 |
-24.11% |
2.39% |
0.37% |
16.33% |
24.28% |
26.50% |
20.60% |
25.16% |
27.70% |
3.77% |
-9.11% |
3.44% |
39.42% |
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| 2001 |
-34.06% |
-23.62% |
-12.36% |
-5.75% |
1.65% |
0.25% |
4.05% |
3.55% |
9.06% |
1.47% |
-11.89% |
3.98% |
76.33% |
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| 2002 |
-42.40% |
-32.47% |
-15.75% |
-17.24% |
-12.10% |
-15.90% |
-11.13% |
-12.36% |
-5.91% |
-6.55% |
-22.10% |
3.27% |
73.70% |
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| 2003 |
51.95% |
40.44% |
36.46% |
36.28% |
32.91% |
34.20% |
40.25% |
38.13% |
45.00% |
43.30% |
28.68% |
-0.15% |
0.61% |
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| 2004 |
12.61% |
15.72% |
14.07% |
18.90% |
25.15% |
15.80% |
16.95% |
19.35% |
18.04% |
16.16% |
10.88% |
0.36% |
9.95% |
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| 2005 |
9.15% |
6.85% |
5.84% |
3.88% |
9.60% |
10.00% |
10.34% |
15.03% |
13.41% |
26.18% |
4.91% |
1.61% |
60.11% |
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| Total |
-4.84% |
0.77% |
5.18% |
8.80% |
11.27% |
13.02% |
13.64% |
16.19% |
21.23% |
22.82% |
9.07% |
2.81% |
96.25% |
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| *Annualized |
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Parameters |
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Region |
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US |
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Population |
Top 1000 |
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Field to Sort |
Alpha |
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Field to Average |
Monthly Total Return |
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Begin Date |
1/31/1994 |
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End Date |
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12/31/2005 |
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Periodicity |
Monthly |
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Num Percentiles |
10 |
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| Quarters |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
S&P 500 |
Slope |
R^2 |
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| 1996 Q1 |
2.06% |
3.21% |
6.52% |
4.32% |
7.00% |
5.47% |
4.41% |
4.96% |
7.71% |
8.19% |
5.37% |
0.47% |
51.81% |
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| 1996 Q2 |
-0.90% |
3.40% |
4.50% |
3.60% |
2.15% |
4.03% |
2.42% |
2.34% |
2.88% |
6.84% |
4.49% |
0.32% |
24.76% |
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| 1996 Q3 |
-2.11% |
-0.24% |
4.07% |
0.25% |
2.09% |
3.55% |
4.32% |
2.37% |
3.16% |
8.66% |
3.09% |
0.76% |
60.61% |
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| 1996 Q4 |
-0.08% |
4.47% |
7.64% |
7.12% |
8.82% |
8.69% |
8.27% |
9.05% |
6.00% |
9.56% |
8.34% |
0.65% |
46.11% |
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| 1997 Q1 |
-7.01% |
-3.29% |
-3.22% |
1.72% |
-0.42% |
1.24% |
1.23% |
-0.02% |
1.44% |
2.07% |
2.68% |
0.79% |
65.93% |
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| 1997 Q2 |
12.37% |
11.79% |
8.52% |
12.95% |
12.64% |
13.89% |
10.28% |
15.65% |
17.96% |
22.95% |
17.46% |
1.01% |
55.51% |
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| 1997 Q3 |
6.20% |
10.79% |
7.18% |
11.98% |
11.82% |
12.52% |
11.80% |
13.39% |
14.30% |
20.38% |
7.49% |
1.11% |
74.90% |
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| 1997 Q4 |
-4.31% |
0.07% |
0.13% |
3.29% |
0.78% |
1.59% |
-0.52% |
-1.30% |
4.66% |
-2.99% |
2.87% |
0.16% |
3.22% |
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| 1998 Q1 |
17.38% |
8.70% |
11.70% |
9.59% |
11.88% |
10.59% |
10.91% |
10.54% |
13.73% |
13.58% |
13.95% |
-0.01% |
0.02% |
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| 1998 Q2 |
-11.30% |
-9.17% |
-4.91% |
-5.33% |
-4.44% |
-2.03% |
-0.55% |
1.03% |
2.51% |
4.57% |
3.30% |
1.64% |
97.23% |
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| 1998 Q3 |
-19.96% |
-20.44% |
-20.78% |
-17.48% |
-19.70% |
-16.61% |
-12.69% |
-15.61% |
-8.86% |
-4.27% |
-9.95% |
1.61% |
78.34% |
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| 1998 Q4 |
12.23% |
14.45% |
17.22% |
17.62% |
16.25% |
19.40% |
18.25% |
23.29% |
21.92% |
18.08% |
21.30% |
0.85% |
62.87% |
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| 1999 Q1 |
4.87% |
-5.53% |
-9.21% |
-5.05% |
-4.64% |
-2.47% |
-4.53% |
-0.83% |
-0.56% |
-2.04% |
4.98% |
0.11% |
0.78% |
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| 1999 Q2 |
15.82% |
13.03% |
12.64% |
10.02% |
6.76% |
11.04% |
12.48% |
11.36% |
12.24% |
19.40% |
7.05% |
0.19% |
3.06% |
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| 1999 Q3 |
-8.70% |
-11.31% |
-9.89% |
-10.11% |
-12.57% |
-5.71% |
-10.38% |
-7.96% |
-5.29% |
-4.97% |
-6.24% |
0.55% |
40.17% |
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| 1999 Q4 |
3.85% |
3.69% |
6.25% |
4.31% |
5.36% |
4.04% |
8.28% |
13.57% |
13.47% |
25.53% |
14.88% |
1.88% |
67.07% |
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| 2000 Q1 |
-5.97% |
-4.19% |
-4.09% |
4.45% |
4.95% |
6.43% |
4.55% |
8.25% |
20.76% |
10.86% |
2.29% |
2.36% |
79.07% |
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| 2000 Q2 |
-7.22% |
-4.36% |
-5.95% |
0.54% |
3.27% |
-1.50% |
2.74% |
0.21% |
2.52% |
-3.37% |
-2.66% |
0.70% |
31.59% |
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| 2000 Q3 |
-3.57% |
6.60% |
7.97% |
11.90% |
11.57% |
13.87% |
7.64% |
9.87% |
0.80% |
-1.52% |
-0.97% |
-0.14% |
0.50% |
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| 2000 Q4 |
-9.79% |
4.82% |
3.05% |
-1.02% |
2.79% |
5.97% |
4.31% |
5.02% |
2.32% |
-1.63% |
-7.83% |
0.52% |
10.97% |
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| 2001 Q1 |
-30.45% |
-24.51% |
-17.39% |
-8.04% |
-8.70% |
-6.33% |
-7.08% |
-7.85% |
-3.37% |
-3.78% |
-11.86% |
2.67% |
76.77% |
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| 2001 Q2 |
15.65% |
11.93% |
9.58% |
9.00% |
10.86% |
10.67% |
13.05% |
11.21% |
11.61% |
5.62% |
5.85% |
-0.44% |
25.53% |
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| 2001 Q3 |
-42.69% |
-27.78% |
-18.28% |
-19.39% |
-15.82% |
-12.07% |
-9.52% |
-9.85% |
-7.01% |
-11.81% |
-14.68% |
3.02% |
72.42% |
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| 2001 Q4 |
43.05% |
25.16% |
18.48% |
16.64% |
19.30% |
9.98% |
9.47% |
12.08% |
8.74% |
13.21% |
10.69% |
-2.70% |
62.77% |
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| 2002 Q1 |
-8.33% |
-1.63% |
4.84% |
1.01% |
7.52% |
1.89% |
6.56% |
5.69% |
7.65% |
12.26% |
0.28% |
1.61% |
71.10% |
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| 2002 Q2 |
-31.34% |
-19.80% |
-13.59% |
-13.51% |
-9.64% |
-5.46% |
-5.68% |
-6.71% |
-3.37% |
-9.28% |
-13.40% |
2.28% |
67.07% |
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| 2002 Q3 |
-33.12% |
-24.88% |
-16.39% |
-10.83% |
-15.27% |
-16.50% |
-14.43% |
-15.40% |
-12.15% |
-10.25% |
-17.28% |
1.74% |
56.84% |
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| 2002 Q4 |
36.84% |
13.96% |
11.23% |
6.25% |
6.78% |
4.57% |
3.33% |
5.06% |
2.95% |
2.24% |
15.21% |
-2.61% |
58.10% |
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| 2003 Q1 |
2.56% |
-3.20% |
-2.94% |
-4.46% |
-4.78% |
-4.04% |
-4.29% |
-2.47% |
-3.80% |
-0.32% |
-3.15% |
-0.16% |
4.59% |
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| 2003 Q2 |
23.19% |
17.63% |
16.09% |
19.26% |
16.85% |
16.86% |
19.18% |
16.39% |
16.09% |
13.75% |
15.39% |
-0.57% |
46.29% |
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| 2003 Q3 |
5.28% |
7.83% |
5.22% |
5.28% |
5.75% |
2.82% |
9.11% |
4.99% |
9.36% |
9.72% |
2.65% |
0.35% |
21.18% |
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| 2003 Q4 |
14.23% |
14.39% |
15.09% |
13.61% |
12.95% |
16.39% |
12.68% |
15.90% |
18.73% |
15.20% |
12.18% |
0.27% |
20.01% |
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| 2004 Q1 |
4.21% |
4.63% |
4.58% |
3.98% |
6.81% |
4.88% |
4.72% |
7.20% |
6.80% |
4.39% |
1.69% |
0.18% |
20.77% |
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| 2004 Q2 |
1.03% |
-0.90% |
-0.15% |
1.55% |
0.58% |
-2.50% |
-1.49% |
-0.27% |
-1.20% |
-3.87% |
1.72% |
-0.36% |
43.21% |
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| 2004 Q3 |
-4.39% |
-1.72% |
-1.97% |
-0.19% |
1.67% |
0.35% |
0.22% |
-0.45% |
-1.08% |
1.91% |
-1.87% |
0.42% |
46.22% |
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| 2004 Q4 |
11.87% |
13.56% |
11.44% |
12.82% |
14.59% |
12.85% |
13.12% |
12.15% |
13.09% |
13.58% |
9.23% |
0.09% |
8.78% |
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| 2005 Q1 |
-4.55% |
-2.32% |
-2.74% |
-3.69% |
-3.18% |
-0.89% |
-3.33% |
0.51% |
1.02% |
4.10% |
-2.15% |
0.73% |
68.51% |
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| 2005 Q2 |
4.74% |
3.22% |
1.06% |
1.39% |
4.61% |
3.33% |
4.67% |
4.35% |
4.26% |
4.84% |
1.37% |
0.20% |
19.05% |
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| 2005 Q3 |
5.55% |
2.21% |
2.59% |
2.74% |
5.63% |
4.68% |
4.59% |
7.06% |
7.57% |
15.85% |
3.60% |
0.95% |
53.06% |
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| 2005 Q4 |
3.44% |
3.69% |
4.96% |
3.55% |
2.44% |
2.61% |
4.25% |
2.45% |
0.11% |
-0.20% |
2.09% |
-0.41% |
56.14% |
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| Months |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
S&P 500 |
Slope |
R^2 |
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| Jan-96 |
-1.85% |
1.41% |
0.64% |
-0.09% |
1.36% |
2.11% |
2.38% |
1.72% |
2.77% |
3.68% |
3.40% |
0.44% |
73.05% |
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| Feb-96 |
0.79% |
1.99% |
2.95% |
2.12% |
3.16% |
2.47% |
1.49% |
0.95% |
3.30% |
2.91% |
0.93% |
0.09% |
10.12% |
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| Mar-96 |
3.16% |
-0.21% |
2.82% |
2.25% |
2.33% |
0.80% |
0.49% |
2.21% |
1.47% |
1.40% |
0.96% |
-0.08% |
5.65% |
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| Apr-96 |
4.39% |
3.38% |
3.77% |
2.81% |
2.98% |
1.91% |
2.38% |
1.27% |
2.43% |
6.17% |
1.47% |
-0.03% |
0.52% |
|
|
|
| May-96 |
0.56% |
2.12% |
0.21% |
1.59% |
1.51% |
2.84% |
2.05% |
2.26% |
2.90% |
3.32% |
2.58% |
0.26% |
63.00% |
|
|
|
| Jun-96 |
-5.59% |
-2.06% |
0.50% |
-0.81% |
-2.28% |
-0.74% |
-1.97% |
-1.18% |
-2.39% |
-2.60% |
0.38% |
0.09% |
2.65% |
|
|
|
| Jul-96 |
-9.39% |
-7.14% |
-4.87% |
-6.77% |
-5.10% |
-5.52% |
-4.30% |
-4.65% |
-5.48% |
-5.39% |
-4.42% |
0.34% |
45.05% |
|
|
|
| Aug-96 |
4.60% |
3.35% |
3.42% |
3.75% |
3.71% |
4.36% |
4.64% |
3.31% |
5.49% |
5.72% |
2.11% |
0.17% |
34.05% |
|
|
|
| Sep-96 |
3.28% |
3.95% |
5.78% |
3.63% |
3.73% |
5.02% |
4.16% |
3.91% |
3.46% |
8.64% |
5.63% |
0.23% |
18.79% |
|
|
|
| Oct-96 |
-3.73% |
-0.61% |
0.90% |
0.31% |
2.31% |
2.55% |
3.01% |
1.59% |
1.62% |
2.22% |
2.76% |
0.49% |
55.50% |
|
|
|
| Nov-96 |
5.97% |
4.98% |
6.01% |
7.33% |
5.81% |
6.18% |
6.08% |
8.49% |
5.75% |
6.70% |
7.56% |
0.13% |
15.55% |
|
|
|
| Dec-96 |
-2.05% |
0.12% |
0.64% |
-0.50% |
0.53% |
-0.18% |
-0.92% |
-1.06% |
-1.36% |
0.45% |
-1.98% |
0.01% |
0.12% |
|
|
|
| Jan-97 |
1.74% |
1.82% |
2.38% |
1.54% |
2.62% |
4.14% |
2.90% |
5.14% |
5.35% |
6.16% |
6.25% |
0.51% |
83.30% |
|
|
|
| Feb-97 |
-2.37% |
-0.49% |
-1.71% |
1.64% |
-0.23% |
0.76% |
1.50% |
0.06% |
0.26% |
-0.05% |
0.78% |
0.22% |
26.67% |
|
|
|
| Mar-97 |
-6.38% |
-4.55% |
-3.82% |
-1.44% |
-2.75% |
-3.52% |
-3.08% |
-4.97% |
-3.97% |
-3.80% |
-4.11% |
0.10% |
4.82% |
|
|
|
| Apr-97 |
-0.74% |
-0.05% |
1.14% |
1.57% |
2.48% |
2.92% |
1.11% |
3.84% |
3.91% |
7.96% |
5.97% |
0.72% |
76.99% |
|
|
|
| May-97 |
10.15% |
8.41% |
5.25% |
6.73% |
5.99% |
6.24% |
6.19% |
6.62% |
8.96% |
8.92% |
6.09% |
-0.01% |
0.04% |
|
|
|
| Jun-97 |
2.78% |
3.17% |
1.94% |
4.19% |
3.70% |
4.16% |
2.72% |
4.46% |
4.18% |
4.57% |
4.48% |
0.19% |
43.23% |
|
|
|
| Jul-97 |
2.96% |
5.39% |
5.34% |
7.21% |
5.88% |
6.15% |
10.02% |
10.50% |
9.04% |
13.17% |
7.96% |
0.92% |
83.24% |
|
|
|
| Aug-97 |
-0.69% |
-0.70% |
-2.09% |
-1.59% |
-0.92% |
-1.33% |
-3.88% |
-1.87% |
|