| Back To
Comparative Analysis |
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HAUGEN SYSTEMS ALTERNATIVE SECTOR PORTFOLIO BACKTESTS |
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In this test we started with the Greenblatt
strategy of "Return on Assets" & "Earning Yield" (see
the first sheet |
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Backtest
Parameters: |
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for the differences in our factors), and
constructed portfolios based on a population of the largest 1,000 |
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Region |
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U.S. |
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stocks.
Fifty stocks were added at the beginning, four stocks were rebalanced
each month, and the monthly returns |
Population |
Top 1,000 |
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were
linked together to compute an annualized return. Then 11 more tests were run, each starting
on a |
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# of stocks |
50 |
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different
month in 1996, but otherwise employing the same rules. Finally, the 12 test's annualized returns
were |
First Date |
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1996 |
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averaged and
shown below. |
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Last Date |
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12/31/05 |
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So
the first column shows average portfolio returns for the 12 tests done on
Return on Assets & Earnings Yield. |
Sector Constrain |
No |
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The
next columns show how the portfolios did without stocks from certain
sectors. For example, the 2nd
column |
Rebalance periodicity |
Monthly |
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has all the same rules as the first, except
stocks from the finance and utility sectors were excluded from the tests. |
Number to rebalance |
4 |
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Greenblatt |
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Greenblatt |
Haugen |
S&P |
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Return on Assets |
Minus |
Minus |
Minus |
Minus |
Minus |
Returns |
Model |
500 |
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& Earnings Yld |
Finance |
Durable |
Energy |
Construct. |
Trans. |
(from the |
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Index |
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All |
Util |
Non-Drbl |
Manufact. |
Bus. Equip |
Bus. Srvc |
book) |
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Sectors |
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---------------------A V
E R A
G E P
O R T
F O L
I O T O
T A L R
E T U
R N----------------------- |
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| 1996 |
30.96% |
31.14% |
45.42% |
34.77% |
22.43% |
31.03% |
37.40% |
48.06% |
22.96% |
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| 1997 |
11.13% |
9.54% |
11.15% |
15.26% |
17.82% |
11.66% |
41.00% |
38.83% |
33.36% |
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| 1998 |
8.91% |
13.19% |
11.25% |
9.90% |
-0.51% |
11.16% |
32.60% |
29.61% |
28.58% |
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| 1999 |
12.35% |
8.80% |
18.34% |
12.40% |
4.08% |
12.74% |
14.40% |
42.17% |
21.04% |
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| 2000 |
17.28% |
14.88% |
3.05% |
13.48% |
23.41% |
17.45% |
12.80% |
-3.53% |
-9.11% |
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| 2001 |
7.61% |
8.64% |
3.80% |
7.99% |
11.24% |
8.92% |
38.20% |
1.06% |
-11.89% |
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| 2002 |
6.50% |
7.63% |
9.99% |
6.69% |
2.62% |
6.44% |
-25.30% |
3.78% |
-22.10% |
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| 2003 |
31.13% |
31.89% |
36.10% |
29.15% |
29.13% |
31.79% |
50.50% |
33.92% |
28.68% |
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| 2004 |
23.29% |
22.28% |
20.47% |
20.56% |
18.80% |
23.38% |
27.60% |
26.69% |
10.88% |
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| 2005* |
20.43% |
18.22% |
20.76% |
12.16% |
19.86% |
19.82% |
N/A |
32.70% |
4.91% |
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| Averge Linked Annual Ret. |
16.64% |
16.31% |
17.36% |
15.92% |
14.49% |
17.14% |
18.67% |
24.05% |
9.07% |
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| Average Annual Return |
16.96% |
16.62% |
18.03% |
16.24% |
14.89% |
17.44% |
25.47% |
25.33% |
10.73% |
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| Longitudinal Std.Dev. |
9.22% |
9.12% |
13.64% |
9.24% |
9.99% |
8.94% |
22.61% |
18.31% |
0.195102 |
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| T-Stat |
5.52 |
5.46 |
3.97 |
5.27 |
4.47 |
5.85 |
3.19 |
4.15 |
1.65 |
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| Probability Total Ret <
0 |
2.10% |
2.34% |
10.21% |
3.23% |
7.31% |
0.63% |
13.97% |
9.11% |
28.43% |
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---------------------A V
E R A
G E P
O R T
F O L
I O E X
C E S S R E
T U R
N----------------------- |
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| 1996 |
8.00% |
8.18% |
22.46% |
11.81% |
-0.53% |
8.07% |
14.44% |
25.10% |
0.00% |
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| 1997 |
-22.24% |
-23.82% |
-22.21% |
-18.10% |
-15.54% |
-21.70% |
7.64% |
5.46% |
0.00% |
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| 1998 |
-19.67% |
-15.39% |
-17.33% |
-18.68% |
-29.09% |
-17.41% |
4.02% |
1.03% |
0.00% |
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| 1999 |
-8.69% |
-12.24% |
-2.71% |
-8.64% |
-16.96% |
-8.30% |
-6.64% |
21.13% |
0.00% |
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| 2000 |
26.39% |
23.98% |
12.16% |
22.59% |
32.51% |
26.56% |
21.91% |
5.58% |
0.00% |
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| 2001 |
19.50% |
20.52% |
15.68% |
19.87% |
23.12% |
20.81% |
50.09% |
12.94% |
0.00% |
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| 2002 |
28.60% |
29.73% |
32.09% |
28.79% |
24.72% |
28.54% |
-3.20% |
25.88% |
0.00% |
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| 2003 |
2.44% |
3.21% |
7.41% |
0.46% |
0.45% |
3.10% |
21.82% |
5.24% |
0.00% |
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| 2004 |
12.42% |
11.40% |
9.59% |
9.68% |
7.92% |
12.50% |
16.72% |
15.82% |
0.00% |
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| 2005* |
15.52% |
13.31% |
15.85% |
7.26% |
14.95% |
14.91% |
N/A |
27.79% |
0.00% |
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| Average
Annual Return |
6.23% |
5.89% |
7.30% |
5.50% |
4.16% |
6.71% |
14.73% |
14.60% |
0.00% |
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| Longitudinal Std.Dev. |
18.04% |
17.86% |
16.98% |
16.56% |
20.26% |
17.64% |
16.94% |
9.97% |
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| Information Ratio |
0.35 |
0.33 |
0.43 |
0.33 |
0.21 |
0.38 |
0.87 |
1.46 |
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| T-Stat |
1.04 |
0.99 |
1.29 |
1.00 |
0.62 |
1.14 |
2.61 |
4.39 |
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| Probability Excess Ret <
0 |
35.28% |
35.85% |
32.31% |
35.75% |
40.70% |
34.02% |
19.69% |
7.74% |
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Each test's results were computed as follows: |
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1. First the test that began in January
had the monthly returns linked together to get an annual total return for
1997. Linking is the |
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geometric average calculated by adding 1 to each monthly return,
multiplying the numbers together, and subracting 1. |
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2. Then 1998 thru 2002 had the total
returns calculated in a similar way. |
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3. Then the February portfolio's annual
returns were calculated the same way, then March, and so on resulting in a
table |
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with
6 by 12 annual returns |
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4. Then
1997's average annual return was calculated by taking the arithmetic average
of all 12 portfolio's 1997 results |
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5. The
rest of the year's average annual returns were then calculated. |
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The Average Linked Annual
Return was then computed by linking these
average annual returns together. Like
with the monthly |
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returns,
above, we added 1 to each annual return, and multiplied the numbers
together. Then, that product was taken
to the |
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12
/ 72nd power before subtracting by one.
The numbers from Greenblatt's books were already geometric averages,
so the |
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average linked annual return could be calculated
the same way as in the rest of the columns. |
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The Average Annual Return is the arithmetic average of each test's (eg Jan96, Jan97,
Feb96, etc) montly total return. |
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The longitudinal standard
deviation is calculated by taking a standard,
non-biased standard deviation of the average annual returns |
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The information ratio is the average excess return divided by the standard
deviation of the excess returns |
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The t-stat is the average annual return divided by the standard
deviation divided by the square root of the number of years in the study. |
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The probability is calculated by first finding the range of returns in the
bell curve (eg, 95% of the returns will be within 2 standard |
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deviations) and then calculating the ratio of
this range and dividing by 2. |
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| Total Return left 95% |
-1.49% |
-1.63% |
-9.25% |
-2.24% |
-5.10% |
-0.45% |
-19.74% |
-11.29% |
-28.29% |
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| right 95% |
35.41% |
34.87% |
45.31% |
34.71% |
34.87% |
35.33% |
70.68% |
61.95% |
49.75% |
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| Excess Return left 95% |
-29.85% |
-29.84% |
-26.66% |
-27.62% |
-36.36% |
-28.57% |
-19.14% |
-5.35% |
0.00% |
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| right 95% |
42.31% |
41.62% |
41.25% |
38.62% |
44.67% |
41.98% |
48.61% |
34.54% |
0.00% |
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| Notes: |
tstat(row) = ave(row) / (std(row) / ((n - 1) ^ 0.5)) |
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68-95-97 |
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